War in Israel reaches new heights

After six weeks of relative quiet, the war in Israel accelerated sharply over the weekend of May 18 - 20. The escalation was precipitated by a suicide bombing at the entrance of a crowded shopping mall in Netanya just north of Tel Aviv on Friday May 18, that killed 5 and wounded over 100 Israelis. The Israeli air force responded by staging bombing runs by F-16 fighter jets and attack helicopters in the West Bank and Gaza Strip on Friday afternoon and Saturday. "It was the first time jets had been used in the territories since the Six Day War in 1967," reported the Jerusalem Post on May 20.

The suicide bomber touched off the blast when he was prevented from entering the mall by security guards. Guards became suspicious because he was wearing a heavy blue coat on a very hot day, according to the May 18 BBC. One of the targets in the air force bombing was a prison and security headquarters for the Palestinians in Nablus where 11 Palestinian policemen were killed. On Saturday, May 19, more than 70,000 Palestinians attended the funerals of of the 11 policemen.

The fact that the F-16 attack targeted the security headquarters of the Nablus, rather than the prison where Hamas bomber mastermind Mahmoud Abu Hannoud was being held prisoner suggests the attack was not specifically a retaliation for the mall suicide bombing in Netanya, but a deliberate escalation of the six week old strategy of targeting Palestinian security facilities, leaders and forces. The systematic attack by Israel on Palestinian leaders and facilities is designed to create fear among Palestinian leadership that their strategy of gradually ratcheting up the violence to make Israel appear like war-mongers to the international community carried a high price – their own lives.

Suicide bombing a coordinated effort

The May 20 DEBKAfile intelligence briefing claims that US F-16's were used in the bombing May 18 was to warn Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Yasser Arafat that Israel is aware of the coordination between the PA, Hamas and Hizballah terrorist groups, as well as Syria with Arafat's Palestinian Authority. The F-16's were a strong warning that there will be severe consequences if the coordinated attacks against Israeli citizens continue. It could be no accident, claims DEBKAfile that "exactly one hour, ten minutes later [after the original suicide bombing], the Hizballah’s south Beirut TV station named the bomber," even though the bomber was a Hamas operative. A quarter of an hour later, an obviously well prepared large Hamas rally formed up in the center of the West Bank town of Ramallah and, under the eye of the Palestinian police, began calling “Death to the Jews!” Preparations for the rally began hours before the suicide bombing.

A Katyusha rocket in its launcher in Southern Lebanon ready to launch at an Israeli target on May 22.

Just before the suicide bombing, Israeli Defense Force spotters watched Hizballah guerrillas, led by Hizballah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, "openly and with much bravado rigging Katyusha rocket launchers in Southern Lebanon and bringing up quantities of rockets in trucks," reported DEBKAfile. The order to launch the rockets was awaiting Syrian president Bashar Assad's approval. Just when all this was going down Assad suddenly aborted a meeting with Egyptian President Hosni Mobarak in Egypt concerning the Egyptian-Jordanian cease fire formula to fly home and supervise the effort. "Assad had given Nasrallah his green light to engage Israel in battle and assured him of Syrian air and artillery support if Israel fought back," claimed DEBKAfile.

This tangled web of intrigue led Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon to his decision to send F-16 fighter jets over Nablus immediately after the suicide bombing in Netanya. It also explains US Vice President Richard Cheney’s evasiveness when challenged by an NBC interviewer Sunday on Israel’s use of American made warplanes for reprisals against the Palestinians. Sharon's bold move worked initially. Assad never gave the final ok to start the shelling and Nasrallah cancelled the Hizballah's triumphal celebration of the one year anniversary of Israel's withdrawal of southern Lebanon. However, after consulting with Assad of Syria and Arafat, Nasrallah decided to call Sharon's hand and resumed the missile preparation in Southern Lebanon on May 20.

By May 27 the London Electronic Telegraph reported that the "Syrian-backed Shi-ite terrorist group had received the 'green light' to resume military actions and that [IDF] intelligence reports indicated that a large operation was imminent." Hizballah is believed to possess rockets with a longer range than the batteries of Katyushas they displayed in southern Lebanon last week. A Hizballah guerrilla commander said all the urban centers in "Northern Palestine" were "sitting ducks". "There are fears that Haifa, Israel's third largest city, will become a target. Bomb shelters in Metula and other towns in 'Katyusha Alley' were also being prepared," said the Telegraph.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon again warned Syria to expect a devastating attack by Israel if Hizballah forces mount this kind of rocket attack on Israel. "Very harsh military action" would be taken against Syrian targets as well as against the guerrillas, warned Sharon. It is becoming increasingly obvious that while the fighting in the West Bank and Gaza Strip has been Israel's main preoccupation for months, Israel's northern border abutting the Hizballah stronghold's in southern Lebanon is likely to be the flashpoint to a regional war.

Both sides hardening their positions – larger war inevitable

During the funeral of the 11 policemen in Nablus, Palestinian activists from all factions also vowed to avenge the attack by Israeli F-16s in the biggest demonstration ever held in the Palestinian areas. "Never since 1967 have so many Palestinians joined a demonstration in any Palestinian city... All of Nablus is wearing black today and all the people and political factions are vowing revenge," a senior Palestinian security officer said, according to a separate Jerusalem Post report on May 20. The terrorist group Hamas claimed responsibility and declared they and other terrorist organizations had another 250 martyrs ready to do the same thing.

Hamas was quick to use these volunteers in a rash of suicide bombs. By May 27 several more suicide bombs had gone off, as well as several car bombs, culminating in a suicide bomb along the Tel Aviv beachfront on June 1 that killed 16 Israeli youth and maiming more than 60 others. This, after Israel had instituted a ceasefire. Events are rapidly spinning out of control and even Arafat knows it. After the first suicide bombing yet another May 20 Jerusalem Post article reported Arafat as proclaiming, "We will not give in. We will go on." The fighting between Israel and the Palestinians has escalated into a "decisive battle for Palestine," claimed Arafat. By June 1 Arafat was singing a different tune. Realizing the killing of 16 Israeli youth in Tel Aviv would push Sharon over the edge, Arafat said, "The president condemns such attacks especially against civilians and calls on all sides to show self-restraint," according to a June 2 BBC report.

Israeli settlers protesting outside Ariel Sharon's office

The recent rash of suicide bombings during a Israeli ceasefire that have left dozens of Israelis dead has caused citizens to say enough. It is time to wage war on Arafat and the Palestinian leadership.

But Arafat's contrition will be too little too late. Immediately following the May 18-19 bombing by the IDF, Israeli Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer telephoned US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld to tell him Israel held Arafat "personally responsible" for the spate of recent suicide bombings. "Arafat is pushing and supporting terror of all groups, be they from the opposition or from the Palestinian Authority." Ben-Eliezer justified Israel's harsh retaliation by saying, "Israel was defending the security of its residents and strengthening regional stability, since Arafat was threatening this vital interest."

European Union Foreign Policy and Security Chief meets with Yasser Arafat on May 21. Solana, architect of the Kosovo plan, has assumed the role of international peace negotiator.

What Ben-Eliezer was saying was that Arafat was speaking from both sides of his mouth. While proclaiming the Palestinians wanted a peaceful solution to the violence, he was gradually ratcheting up the violence to produce staged photo ops for the world press to show Israeli troops shooting at young children. As DTT has been reported for the past six months, Arafat is attempting to create the conditions where he can exact a Kosovo-like solution that will give the Palestinians far more than could ever be obtained with direct peace negotiations with Israel. Arafat has been quietly working with Javier Solana, the European Union Foreign Policy and Security chief – and principle architect of NATO's Kosovo efforts. See past Analyses and Digest articles for more information.

Following the June 1 suicide bomb, Sharon's spokesman seemed to have sealed Arafat's fate. "The finger is pointing only in one direction and that is the chairman of the Palestinian Authority [Yasser Arafat] and the Palestinian leaders ... in their responses to our call for a ceasefire," he said. Ironically, just before the June 1suicide bombing the Washington Times reported that Israeli President Moshe Katsav had said, "It is a question of a few days, not more, for Yasser Arafat to decide [to end the bombing]. Prime Minister Sharon said Israel would not reoccupy territory now administered by the Palestinians, but would be "an attack on the centers and sources of the terrorism," which would Mr. Arafat´s leadership group. If or when the attack from Israel comes it will be an all-out effort or war to surgically eradicate Arafat and his leadership as well as that of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. So far, however, the immediate response by Israel of the June 1 attack was to totally seal off all Palestinian territory, physically isolating the Palestinians from the rest of the world.

Even peace seeking Foreign Minister Simon Peres is now convinced that Israel must prepare for war. The May 15 Ha'aretz reported Peres saying that "Israel is locked in a 'battle for its existence.' The problems are existential, and in all my days I have never known their like," said Peres in an interview with Ha'aretz. "There were similar situations in the past, but then everybody was mobilized...," said Peres. "Today, too, everyone must mobilize. Then, it was to survive, and now it is to prevent the danger of war and attain peace." Peres said it is very important to prevent a situation in which Western countries make excuses for Palestinian terrorism. "They must not tell us 'there is terror because of your settlements' ... It is very important there should be no justification or excuses" for terrorism.

What next

Just as DTT predicted in July 2000, the Camp David Peace Summit has led to a condition of war in which the international community is systematically moving ever closer to intervening and force a peace covenant on Israel – just as the Bible says would happen. If Israel goes after Arafat and the terrorist leadership, the Arab nations will have to respond. Likewise, if the Hizballah launch a rocket attack into Israel, Israel will likely retaliate by massive attack both on Hizballah positions in Southern Lebanon and against Syria proper, since Israel holds Syria responsible for anything the Hizballah does. That action will likely draw Iraq into the fray and the fighting will spin out of control into a regional war. War now seems inevitable.

Israel will win, but if Saddam can unleash some of his missiles, they will take out many Israeli citizens before he is stopped. Israel will have to use its neutron bombs to stop Saddam which will horrify the world. Especially when the world sees the first pictures of dozens or hundreds of petrified Iraqi soldiers that look perfectly alive – along with total death everywhere – but with little to no visible damage caused by the bomb itself. Although Israel will win, it will lose once and for all in the court of public opinion. The media will make sure of that. That will then provide the perfect justification for the international community to impose a forced peace and possibly make Jerusalem an "international city." V mc