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China has finally exposed her true colors to the world with the EP-3 hijacking and other acts of belligerence against the US. The recent boldness is in part the result of the renewed interest in the 1999 Military Cooperation Treaty with Russia that was initially unveiled by Chinese President Jiang Zemin and then Russian President Boris Yeltsin but never signed. After an easing of tensions in the second half of 2000, once again the threat of joint Chinese-Russian military action is raising its ugly head  – putting all Americans at risk. 

Discerning the Times Digest's (DTTD) concern throughout 2000 that the Military Cooperation treaty was designed to provide a united front with Russia to confront and neutralize the unipolar dominance of the US is only now being confirmed in the media as its successor, the Economic and Friendship Treaty, is about to be signed by China and Russia. While China has greatly enhanced their military capability to conquer Taiwan in minutes and successfully repel any US response, it is still no match for the US Navy. China believes two things will level the playing field. First , the new treaty will ensure that Russia's Pacific fleet will come to China's aid in the event the US Pacific Fleet attempted to intervene in a Chinese attack of Taiwan. More important to Americans, however, before China attacks Taiwan, China and Russia would likely bring the war to US cities in the form of crippling cyber, biological and/or nuclear terrorism.

China's military buildup

China has stunned western analysts with its military modernization efforts the past two years. In their analysis in the April 15 NewsMax, China analysts Dr. Alexandr V. Nemets (consultant to Science Applications International and American Foreign Policy Council) and Dr. Thomas J. Torda (consultant to Naval intelligence) outline a stunning array of new military equipment that China has either manufactured or bought from Russia in the past two years. "It is common knowledge among analysts that China's PLAAF (Peoples Liberation Army Air Force) and PLAN (Peoples liberation Army Navy] aviation received hundreds, not 'several dozen,' of Russia's modern fighters and bombers" as commonly believed, claim the two analysts.

But that's not all. By April of 2001 China had also beefed up its theater missile defense (TMD) system by positioning hundreds of advanced air defense missile (ADM) systems along the Chinese coast from Beijing to Hong Kong. "Together with thousands of Chinese-made ADM systems of various kinds and many thousand air-defense artillery units, this makes a strong-enough TMD network, capable of effectively opposing massive air strikes 'of Kosovo war scale,' including land-attack cruise missile strikes," warn Nemets and Torda. 

In addition, China has purchased hundreds of advanced land-based cruise missiles from Russia capable of reaching Taiwan and US ships. In 2000 it also started production of its own cruise missiles and has received a "significant quantity" of intermediate and long range ballistic missiles from Russia, some of which can reach the US. By late 2000, China had positioned up to 300 mid-range ballistic missiles that can be armed with tactical neutron and electromagnetic pulse bombs to instantly take out Taiwan's military installations and air force.

Finally, the PLA Navy (PLAN) has added state of the art destroyers and submarines to its otherwise outdated navy. The destroyers and frigates have been armed with very advanced Russian-made supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, probably of the Moskit (Sunburn) and/or Yakhont types. Numerous Pentagon and Congressional reports have shown that the US has no adequate defense for these anti-ship missiles because President Clinton stopped all research and development work to create such a defense. In other words, our Seventh Fleet in the Pacific Ocean is very vulnerable to a first-strike Chinese attack.

The China-Russia military alliance to confront US

As important as China's military modernization is the new alliance between China and Russia. The agreement for Russia to come to China's aid if China was attacked by the US was first publicly announced by Presidents Jiang and Putin during a July 5, 2000 meeting on the sidelines of a five-nation summit of China, Russia and three Central Asian states held in Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan. It was a key component in the December 1999 Military Cooperation Treaty developed by Jiang and Yeltsin. The April 15, 2001 NewsMax analysis by Nemets and Torda has confirmed that the agreement still stands and is now folded into the revamped Economic and Friendship Treaty to be signed this July when Presidents Jiang Zemin and Vladimir Putin meet in a Summit in Moscow.  

Based on the 1999 Military Cooperation Treaty, the new treaty prescribes, among other items, "joint resistance to the aggression against either of the two sides," note Nemets and Torda. This particularly means "unconditional support of China by the Russian side – with all resources available – in the case of a Sino-US military conflict." The two analysts continue, "Such a position of the Russian side was confirmed in a telephone call between Jiang Zemin and Putin in mid-January this year.... In case of a serious crisis around Taiwan, or any other crisis related to direct conflict between Chinese and U.S. forces – a significant part of the Russian Pacific Fleet will 'block the way of the U.S. Navy.'" Talks between these two supreme leaders have taken place on a regular basis after their summit in July 2000. If China does intend to attack Taiwan, it will likely use the unlimited war strategy. 

As detailed in a separate article in this issue of the Digest, China has implemented the strategy in what it calls "unrestricted war" in November of 1999 and Russia was quick to follow with its own version in the spring of 2000. DTTD has long reported that the 1999 Military Cooperation Treaty was designed to destabilize the US by using terrorism with weapons of mass destruction and cyber attacks. With the signing of the Economic and Friendship Treaty this July, that possibility becomes more likely. If China is serious about taking back Taiwan militarily, a series of devastating terrorist attacks using weapons of mass destruction or cyber warfare would likely be used to throw the U.S. into political chaos before attacking Taiwan – especially if the Chinese military believed it could hide its complicity. This threat by far represents the greatest threat to the US and all American citizens since the cold war, causing Joseph de Courcy, Editor in Chief of the highly respected Janes Intelligence Digest to warn, "Contrary to what the general public believes, the world is more dangerous today than it has been for the last 50 years..."

Bush calls China's bluff

After a brief cooling of tensions last summer, once it became clear that Bush had won the presidency in the fall of 2000, China once again became belligerent. At first the tough talk seemed to be designed to bully Bush into giving what China wanted. But when Bush did not buckle like Clinton did before him, China intensified its rhetoric and actions that eventually led to the collision of the Jian-8 fighter and the US EP-3.

Bush has called China's hand. Although he did not give Taiwan the Aegis missile defense system in the April 2001 arms sale, the Aegis sale was not relevant to the current crisis anyway. Furthermore, a close review of the sale shows a very definite Bush strategy in the sale. First, there is no doubt that Taiwan has to eventually have the Aegis technology to defend itself, and any purchase made now from the US would likely be a moot issue. If China is going to attack Taiwan it will be within the next three years or sooner. The Aegis systems installed in the Arleigh Burkes class destroyers would not be delivered to Taiwan until 2010 – much too late to fend off a Chinese attack, if it occurs. And, even if the Aegis system was available, it is doubtful it could handle the 300 or more intermediate ballistic missiles currently aimed at Taiwan by China. 

On the other hand, the four Kidd destroyers that are being sold to Taiwan can be ready in a very short time. There is speculation that the Kidd destroyers may even be outfitted with some of the Aegis technology. Even if that does not happen, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) describes the Kidd as "formidable" and one of the few multipurpose destroyers that could be sold to Taiwan. The FAS also notes that the Kidd is "so quiet, and sports an anti-submarine weapons system so capable, that she operates offensively against submarines." This could be critical if China imposes a naval blockade, as expected. The same is true, albeit with a longer delivery time-table, of the sale of the four Dolphin diesel submarines to Taiwan. The Dolphin is one of the quietest, most capable modern diesel submarine being produced today. Like the Kidd destroyer, the FAS rates it as having very good anti-submarine potential and can launch surface to surface cruise missiles.

Bush's most clever move may be in providing a "technical briefing" of the new upgraded Patriot anti-missile system that Taiwan had requested, but did not officially receive April 24. According to an April 24, 2001 Stratfor analysis, "The technical briefing on PAC-3, while only the first step in upgrading Taiwan’s current Patriot anti-missile force, takes direct aim at China’s missile buildup across the straits, effectively doing what China sought to avoid in fighting the Aegis radar sale." Taiwan already has its own, albeit older, Patriot missiles that are fully operational. Depending on the nature of the "briefing" on the upgraded version, Taiwan may be able to upgrade its older Patriots itself, or at least be trained to use the newer missiles which could quickly be delivered to Taiwan should tensions increase.

The sale of this advanced technology to Taiwan is only part of Bush's actions that enraged China. On the Good Morning America Show April 25 Bush said that the US would do "Whatever it took to help Taiwan defend herself" if China attacked. To emphasis the point, he repeated the promise on the O'Reilly Factor on Fox News May 25. President Bush seems to have drawn the line in the sand with China – the US will not allow China to take back Taiwan by force. But, China must have Taiwan if it is to succeed in attaining its proclaimed goals of attaining Hegemony (dominance) in Southeastern Asia and become a primary world player in the new world order. But China has far more to lose than the US if the status-quo over Taiwan is continued.

President Bush will simply not allow China and Russia to dictate US policy in any arena. In spite of the rapidly increasing threats from China and Russia, Bush announced the missile defense system for the US even though it would break the 1972 ABM treaty. Unlike Clinton, who played fast and loose with America's future, Bush knows Russia and China cannot be trusted with anything. In a stunning revelation by Insight magazine, Russia has never been in compliance with the 1972 ABM treaty. Even though Russia is saber rattling over Bush's announcement of implementing an AMB system, it has been building an ABM system of its own since before the ABM treaty was even signed! Russia now has 8,000 modern anti-missile missiles already in place – totally violating the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treat and making a mockery of chest thumping. Russia simply wants to maintain an strategic edge over the US. 

America at risk

America is at risk once again. Nemets and Torda believe that China will call Bush's hand and attack Taiwan in late 2002. It will not be painless to China, but it believes it can win such a war and attain the Taiwan jewel it needs intact. If this is what China does, we can expect weapons of mass destruction or cyber attacks to be used in terrorist attacks on US soil. Tens of thousands, if not millions of Americans will likely die in the process – causing panic, chaos and a backlash by the American people demanding isolationism. If it is handled correctly by the globalists, it could even advance the move to world government by assuring the American people that only a new world government having its own army could handle such tensions in the future, thereby taking America out of harm's way.