As tensions mount Israel seems to be preparing for a major war – even before the most recent suicide bombings. The July 22 Jerusalem Post reported that Israel is making preparations for a massive call-up of tens of thousands of Israeli reservists abroad in the event of a major war. The IDF has set up recruitment centers in Los Angeles, New York, Paris, London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Bangkok, Bombay and Johannesburg. If a major crisis erupts, army recruiters will reach out to Israelis who live abroad or are vacationing. Israel is checking embassies around the world to check that lists of Israeli soldiers and officers living abroad are up to date.

Jane's Defense revealed a report, strongly denied by Israel, allegedly representing a massive battle plan for Israel to attack and destroy the Palestinian armed forces, the Palestine Authority, and exile its leader Yasser Arafat. The offensive represents the long-rumored and expected all-out attack to destroy the Palestine Authority, Force 17, the PLO Fatah faction, Hamas and the Islamic Jihad terrorist groups by Israel. F-15 and F-16 fighter-bombers would support a heavy artillery bombardment initially followed by an attack of a combined force of 30,000 men, including paratroopers, tank brigades and infantry. Although Arafat would supposedly be arrested and deported, word on the street has it that the decision to kill Arafat has been made by Israel. 

It was not until stories began to leak out that Israel was planning a huge offensive against Yasser Arafat personally and his Palestinian Authority (PA) directly did Arafat suddenly start running scared, trying to get the Palestinians to hold to a ceasefire. It didn't work, and Arafat began to round up terrorists to imprison them. That plan backfired on Arafat. The July 26 Dallas-Fort Worth Star reported that the arrests resulted in a near civil war. A four-hour gunfight erupted outside of Arafat's cousin's home, Moussa Arafat, head of military intelligence, after his forces arrested five militants. The clash pitted Yasser Arafat's security forces against Hamas as well as members of his own PLO Fatah faction. 

As Israel has stepped up its efforts to target Palestinian leadership suspected of being involved in terrorist activities, tension in Israeli-US relations is growing. The July 10 BBC reported that US criticism of Israeli actions in Palestinian territories is increasing dramatically. Sharon has not given the order to start the offensive, in part due to extreme pressure by President Bush. In turn, Bush appears to be caving in to the not so veiled threats by the Saudis that the US would face an oil embargo if it continues to side with Israel.

The Jane's report also suggests that Syria, Jordan and Egypt are expected to stay out of the fight, but Iraq and Iran may not. That possibility received a boost when Israel captured a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard who had direct connections with Iranian President Mohammed Khatami, according to the July 7 London Telegraph. The July 8 Sunday Times reported that groups of elite Iranian soldiers who have infiltrated southern Lebanon are preparing for attacks on Israel using 240mm Fagr-5 rockets that could reach central Israel. One intelligence source said the rockets were "strategic weapons to deter Israel from launching a large-scale military onslaught against the Palestinians."

Israel's nightmare scenario unfolding? 

The equation has changed dramatically since the report was allegedly prepared last spring. Both DEBKAfile and Stratfor intelligence groups reported strong evidence that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has already massed troops and/or commando units in Jordan and possibly Syria to strike into Israel, according to WorldNetDaily on July 26 and August 19. Saddam has been spoiling to get into the fight.

Worse, longtime holdouts Saudi Arabia and Egypt are now joining Iraq, Syria and the Lebanese Hizballah in threatening to attack Israel if it launches this offensive. The August 12 Sunday Times reported that Egypt is seriously considering sending its 3rd Armor Army into the Sinai if Israel attacks Palestinian territory. This follows an August 6 WorldNetDaily report that the Saudi Ambassador to Britain believes that Israel can be defeated if the Arab nations launch a simultaneous multi-front war. "Israel is unable to fight efficiently on more than one front, as was proven in the October 1973 War." 

Indeed, such a threat would invoke Israel's "Nightmare Scenario" which calls for the launching of an all-out preemptive attack on Arab nations to avoid the 1973 near catastrophe. Israel waited too long and was almost defeated by overwhelming Arab forces attacking from multiple directions. Stratfor Intelligence warned on October 16, 2000 that:

The scenario, which dates back more than 25 years, goes like this. First, a massive uprising occurs on the West Bank and the Gaza. Second, this rising spreads to Arab citizens of Israel. Strained to its limits by internal threats, the Israeli military may be unable to deal with an external threat.... An uprising inside Israel would make the movement of troops and supplies difficult and perhaps impossible. It would immeasurably complicate mobilization and movement toward the frontier. The difficulty of defending Israel would rise by orders of magnitude. If bordering Arab states choose to attack during such a rising, Israel could face defeat.

Egypt is central to such a plan. If Egypt nullifies the 1979 Israel-Egypt peace agreement and moves into the Sinai, Israel must launch a preemptive war:

Under the nightmare scenario, Israeli forces must move first to secure [Sinai] passes. Indeed, the full preemptive scenario would include a reoccupation of Sinai up to the passes along with preemptive air strikes on Arab air forces and, above all, missile capabilities. Right now, the uprisings in Israel are not sufficient to constitute the worst-case threat. But from the Israeli point of view, waiting until things reach the worst case is unacceptable.

Like an out-of-control locomotive with its throttle jammed wide open, the nightmare scenario now seems to be in a freefall to fulfillment. Prime Minister Sharon cannot allow the suicide bombings to continue unchallenged or Israel will suffer a psychological defeat and it will embolden the Palestinians. Besides, he will lose his job. President Bush cannot allow Sharon to attack Palestinian territory for fear of an oil embargo against the US. Iraq, Syria and the Iranian supported Lebanese Hizballah have been ready to attack for months. And now, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are making noises about going to war with Israel. If Sharon attacks, Egypt will likely follow through with its threat and move the Egyptian 3rd Army into the Sinai, which will trigger Israel's nightmare scenario preemptive strike.

The August 14 World Tribune reported that Russian defense officials believe that war in the Mideast is inevitable within three to six months. "The trigger for the war could take place in September. The Russian analysts expect an Israeli offensive against the Palestinian Authority triggered by Palestinian bombings of Israeli cities. Such an offensive, they said, could prompt Egypt to direct its Third Army to enter the Sinai," said the World Tribune.

Would Sharon launch a preemptive attack? Sharon is a strong nationalist who sees himself in some ways as a man of destiny for Israel. He has a history of being a commando and a brilliant tactician with a take-all, to hell with the consequences, mindset. Nonetheless, his tactics have succeeded. He is credited with saving Israel in 1973 by taking the Sinai thereby permitting Israel to focus its dwindling forces on the Golan Heights to stop Syria from succeeding. 

The day after he won the February 7, 2001 elections, Sharon went to the Wailing Wall, according to the January 8 Irish Times. Offering prayers of thanksgiving at the wall, Sharon said: "I am visiting Jerusalem, the capital of the Jewish people for the past 3,000 years and the united and indivisible capital of Israel - with the Temple Mount at its centre - for all eternity." The Times also reported that Sharon told reporters he promised that "I will bring unity and I'll bring peace to the citizens of Israel and stability to the Middle East." (Bold and italics added for emphasis)

The international sharks are circling

Meanwhile, the July 24 Virtual New York reported that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon told European Union Foreign Policy envoy Javier Solana that Israel would implement recommendations of the Mitchell fact-finding report and peace recommendations only if Palestinians completely end "violence, incitement and terror." 

Solana was meeting with Sharon to convince him to follow the call by the G8 to place international observers into Gaza and the West Bank as recommended by the Mitchell report. The G8, including the US, had called on Israel on July 20 to accept "neutral" international monitors to be allowed to observe the shattered Middle East truce. The official call for observers was a major diplomatic setback for Israel, who had adamantly opposed observers in the past and depended on US intervention to keep the global hounds at bay. 

Such an international "observer" force deployed to keep peace between Israel and the Palestinians is anathema to most Israelis. The Palestinians, on the other hand, have been pushing for these kinds of observers as the first step in greater international intervention that would yield them a Kosovo-like settlement. Such a settlement would critically weaken Israel while gaining a much larger Palestinian state than would ever be possible with any peace negotiations with Israel. The Palestinians have become masters at staging incidents that appear to observers to be an overreaction by Israel. 

As Secretary General of NATO in 1999, Solana was the architect of Kosovo and is guiding Macedonia down the same dead-end road that he took Kosovo. Like Clinton before him, Solana seems to be encouraging the conditions for war in the Mideast under the guise of finding peace. 

The likely outcome

Will things get so tense that the international community steps in to force a solution at the point of a gun before total war breaks out? It is possible, but unlikely. More likely, the globalists will encourage the limited regional war. Israel will win, especially if it launches a preemptive strike. Although Egypt has one of the most modern militaries in the world, it has a bankrupt cadre of leadership. If war breaks out they would be like keystone cops. Similarly, while Syria rattles its saber, Hassid is not ready for war. That leaves Iraq. President Bush may be able to assist Israel with Saddam using the 1991 UN sanctions to justify US involvement without incurring an Arab oil embargo.

Would Sharon launch a preemptive strike knowing it would likely unleash a regional war? Without a doubt. Yet, Sharon so far has demonstrated incredible restraint for a man with a war horse reputation. Certainly, President Bush is pressuring Sharon not to attack the Palestinians, but Sharon also knows the stakes of this game of chess are extremely high. He seems to be making every effort not to precipitate the nightmare scenario. 

The retaliations for the last two suicide bombings were carefully staged attacks and subsequent destruction of PA police stations in the West Bank towns of Ramallah and Jenin, as well as the takeover of the PA headquarters Orient House in East Jerusalem. Ramallah has always been a hotbed of Palestinian terrorist activity and Jenin was the home of the last two suicide bombers. While Jenin required deep penetration of Palestinian territory by IDF tanks and armament, no other government buildings were targeted and extreme care was taken not to shoot at civilians. Sharon was being very careful not to trigger the nightmare scenario.