Fred Singer, Ph.D.; Science
Environment Policy Project
Climate science is
not "settled;" it is both uncertain and incomplete. The
available observations do not support the mathematical models that predict
a substantial global warming and form the basis for a control policy on
greenhouse (GH) gas emissions.
1) The fate of
anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere is uncertain: its uptake into the
ocean; the biological pump; the missing carbon sink. The future growth of
atmospheric CO2 depends crucially on estimates of residence time and the
amount of fossil fuels likely to be used for energy production. Some
researchers suggest an 8x pre-industrial value, while others doubt whether
CO2 will even double.
2) The
temperature record of the last hundred years is of poor quality and
shows many discrepancies. Surface temperatures disagree with recent
measurements from satellites and balloons. The urban heat island effect
may skew the record.
3) General
Circulation Models (GCMs) vary by 300% in their temperature forecasts,
require arbitrary adjustments, and cannot handle crucial mesoscale and
microscale cloud processes. Their forecasts of substantial warming depend
on a positive feedback from atmospheric water vapor (WV).
4) GCMs cannot
account for past observations: the temperature rise between 1920 to
1940, the cooling to 1975, and the absence of warming in the satellite
record since 1979. Various explanations need to be explored: reduced
positive feedback from WV; increase in cloudiness; anthropogenic aerosols;
man-made land changes; increasing air traffic; solar variations
influencing climate.
5) Prehistoric
climate fluctuations, on timescales as rapid as a decade, are
prevalent – as judged from the data from tree rings, sediments, and ice
cores. Such climate events are not explained by existing models, nor can
current GCMs account for El-Nino events, the North Atlantic Oscillation,
and other contemporary rapid changes in climate.
6) Sea level (SL)
rise is a major feared impact of a future warming. It seems likely,
however, that increased evaporation from the ocean may lead to more rapid
accumulation of polar ice and a lowering of sea level. This possibility is
supported by an observed inverse correlation between SL rate of rise and
tropical sea surface temperature (SST).
7) Severe storms
and hurricanes have diminished in the past 50 years. A global warming
trend is calculated to reduce the latitudinal temperature gradient and
therefore the driving force for storms and severe weather.
8) Global
agriculture will likely benefit from climate warming and increased
precipitation; increased CO2 leads to more rapid plant growth; increased
nocturnal and winter warming leads to a longer growing season. Farmers can
and will adjust to climate changes.
9) The spread of
disease vectors, like malaria-carrying mosquitos, is likely to be
unimportant in comparison to human vectors. In addition, medical science
and insect control technology are sure to progress.
10) Historical
evidence supports the idea that warmer climate intervals are
beneficial for human activities, food production, and health. Cold periods
have had the opposite effect.
11) Mitigation techniques are
available that can slow down the rise of atmospheric GH gases and a
possible climate change: energy conservation and increased efficiency
often make economic sense; hydro and nuclear power are available now;
solar energy may be around the corner; tree planting and ocean
fertilization may be low-cost methods of sequestering atmospheric CO2.
