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The South China Morning Post reported on November 13 yet another PLA military exercise to demonstrate China's combat prowess to warn Taiwan against independence. Originally reported by Xinhua, China's official newspaper, the exercise started on Wednesday, November 8 and lasted 3 days. Another large-scale exercise, chaired by President Jiang Zemin, was held near Beijing last month. Analysts said the frequency of these exercises was meant to send a warning to Taiwan that China would be ready for war if the island took one wrong step towards independence.

By itself, the exercise means very little. However, as reported in October's Discerning the Times (DTT) Digest, China seems to be building its military to first take back Taiwan in the near future and directly confront the United States within ten years. For instance, AFP reported November 6 that China has revealed a new missile for the first time that could pose a grave threat to the defense of Taiwan if deployed. "It's a brand-new supersonic missile, anti-ship or anti-radar, which could have a considerable range," said Richard Fisher, an expert on military affairs at Washington's Jamestown Foundation. "It is only a model, [but] I would be worried if I was in Taiwan." Fisher said that since the missile is super-sonic, it cannot be destroyed in flight and appears primarily aimed at destroying radars, which form Taiwan's first line of defense against plane or missile attack.

DTT has been cautioning for well over a year that China does not intend to use conventional warfare methods with its navy and airforce, if and when it attacks Taiwan. Instead it will use the 300 plus short and long range missiles currently deployed, many of which are reportedly tipped with tactical electromagnetic pulse and neutron nuclear bombs. If China does take back Taiwan militarily, it must not harm Taiwan's world-class economic power. Since these warheads affect only a few square miles, they would allow China to surgically destroy military targets without harming nearby infrastructure or the economic power of Taiwan. 

Recent Pentagon studies support DTT's concerns. On November 15, Bill Gertz of the Washington Times showed that China has dramatically increased its military forces over the past decade.

In October 1998, the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report labeled "Secret" outlined a major buildup of short-range ballistic missiles opposite Taiwan. Until 1998, missile deployment had been modest and limited to a garrison of CSS-6 missiles at Leping. What the DIA uncovered was a Chinese plan to accumulate 650 missiles by 2005. According to the DIA, China had 150 missiles near Taiwan in 1998 and intended to add about 50 new missiles a year. The report said the new missiles include two versions of the short-range, ballistic CSS-7 — Mod 1, with a range of 350 kilometers, and Mod 2, with a range of 530 kilometers.

According to Gertz, "Pentagon analysts viewed the buildup as ominous, since it showed that Beijing's intention was not to conduct aircraft or seaborne assaults but to launch barrages of missiles. A Pentagon report to Congress made public in June stated that Beijing views ballistic missiles — as well as ground- or sea-hugging cruise missiles — as "potent military and political" weapons against Taiwan." The internal Pentagon reports that, "A large arsenal of highly accurate and lethal theater missiles serves as a 'trump card,' a revolutionary departure from the PLA of the past.... The PLA's theater missiles and a supporting space-based surveillance network are emerging not only as a tool of psychological warfare but as a potentially devastating weapon of military utility." 

Not only is China equipping itself to attack Taiwan using missiles, it is also equipping itself to take out the U.S. Pacific Fleet. Virtual New York reported on November 27 that Russia delivered a second Sovremenny class destroyer to the Chinese military, four weeks ahead of schedule. The deal was to provide China with two naval destroyers armed with Moskit supersonic cruise missiles. The 120-kilometre (75-mile) range missiles are considered the best in their class because they are virtually impossible to intercept, said Ogoryov. 

Defense analyst Richard D. Fisher supports Ogoryov, according to the March 25 edition of WorldNetDaily. Fisher, a former defense analyst for Rep. Chris Cox, R -Calif., wrote an evaluation of the Russian-built Sunburn missile being sold to China. Now working for a Washington-based think-tank, Fisher says the U.S. Navy cannot stop the Sunburn. "The Raduga Moskit (Sunburn) anti-ship missile is perhaps the most lethal anti-ship missile in the world," wrote Fisher in a review of the Chinese navy. "The Moskit combines a Mach 2.5 speed with a very low-level flight pattern that uses violent end maneuvers to throw off defenses. After detecting the Moskit, the U.S. Navy Phalanx point defense system may have only 2.5 seconds to calculate a fire solution -- not enough time before the devastating impact of a 750-lb. warhead."  

On February 29, the Washington Times reported that China "bluntly threatened to fire long-range nuclear missiles at the United States if it defends the island [Taiwan]." China bragged that "The U.S. military will even be forced to [make] a complete withdrawal from the East Asian region, as they were forced to withdraw from southern Vietnam in those days." The threat is not an empty bluff. Depending on how many EMP and neutron nuclear warheads China has been able to produce to arm its CSS- 6's and 7's and Moskit (Sunburn) anti-ship missiles, China could launch an attack against Taiwan as early as mid-December, threatening the United States in the process.

Even more chilling is a November 8 analysis by Stratfor Intelligence that states, "China’s military capability is inferior to the United States, but Beijing’s principles of warfare are now driving a weapons program aimed at leveling the playing field between strong and weak militaries. Such a strategy seeks to exploit inequalities between information economies and developed or undeveloped economies." Computer network attacks, called CNAs, give remote users access to system networks...creating serious network malfunctions. CNAs work to balance the unbalanced military relationship between large and small powers.