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    The Israel-Palestinian Cauldron
    © 2000 Discerning the Times Digest and NewsBytes

     

    Perhaps one of the most significant Biblical events since the six-day war in Israel ended in failure on Tuesday, July 25. Ironically, its failure may actually enhance its long-term Biblical implications and the return of Christ. 

    After fourteen days of intensive negotiations, Barak accepted a proposal Monday, July 24 by the U.S. to divide the city into administrative units with some degree of sovereignty over certain parts of the city. "It's about administration-plus, perhaps also with signs of joint sovereignty, in the [Arab] neighbourhoods outside the Old City, in the neighbourhoods at the edge of Jerusalem such as Shuafat," said Rabbi Michael Melchior, Minister for Diaspora Affairs on Barak's cabinet. In the compromise, Palestinians would be given authority over several Arab neighborhoods in east Jerusalem as well as some form of authority over the Moslem and Christian quarters of the Old City. Israel, in turn, would annex several large Jewish areas on the outskirts of the city, which would be recognized as Israel's capital.

    Nonetheless, Arafat told Clinton Tuesday, July 25 that since Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak was not going to give the Arabs total sovereignty over East Jerusalem, there was no need to continue the talks at Camp David.

    Who’s to blame?

    Not surprisingly, on Wednesday, July 26, Israel and the Palestinians blame each other for the failed peace talks. However, most analysts believe the blame lies squarely on Arafat's refusal to not accept anything except full sovereignty over Jerusalem.

    While Clinton praised Barak for his willingness to compromise Wednesday July 26, Palestinian Authority Minister of Justice Freih Abu Medien said Arafat became a "national Arab hero" for not accepting any compromise on Jerusalem and the Palestinian refugees forced from Israeli-occupied lands. "I would be making a mistake not to praise Barak, because I think he took a big risk," the president said. At the same time Medien said "The failure of the summit means a massive destruction for the Palestinian people, because we had lived on a hope to have peace, and Israel killed this hope." 

    Why the Squabble over Jerusalem?

    Jerusalem is the major obstacle preventing a peace settlement. To the secular world it makes no sense. Why are the two sides squabbling over a piece of ground as if the fate of the entire world depends on it? According to Bible prophecy, the fate of the world does depend upon Jerusalem and Israel. Hence, President Clinton said on Tuesday, July 25 that "I think [the problem of Jerusalem] will be bridged because I think the alternative is unthinkable," he added. Yet, if the Bible is being correctly interpreted, the Palestinians will never again have sovereignty over Jerusalem. They are seemingly demanding something that God will not permit. As would be expected, however, the Palestinians and their Arab-Nation supporters are allowing this seeming intransigence by Israel to harden their hearts, just like God's miracles did to Pharaoh when God was telling Pharaoh to "Let my people go." 

    The seriousness of this probability was voiced on Monday, July 24 by a top Egyptian military commander who said that war with Israel is inevitable. Field Marshal Abd Al-Halim Abu Ghazaleh made the comment in a media interview where he outlined what he sees as Israel's vulnerability to a concerted Arab attack. Israel's anti-missile systems, Abu Ghazeleh added, would be ineffective against a "missile attack coming from several directions," indicating a united Arab effort against Israel.

    This sudden intensification of hostilities from Egypt has come from out of the blue. Egypt and Israel have been living together in relative peace since Egyptian President Anwar Sadat signed a peace treaty with Menachem Begin in 1979 at a similar peace summit in 1978 at Camp David with Jimmy Carter. It would suggest that the Arab nations are once again uniting against Israel for war.

    Likewise the Hamas, one of the militant factions fighting for Palestinian sovereignty of Jerusalem, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, also claimed on Monday that they will not recognize any peace agreement until all their conditions are met. If Israel refuses, as it must, then Sheikh Ahmed Yassin claims "Hamas has only one option: what has been taken by force can only be returned by force."

    Barak in Political Trouble

    We were also reminded on Tuesday, July 25, that Prime Minister Ehud Barak is on very thin ice in Israel. Before he left for Camp David he lost his governing coalition and barely survived a no-confidence motion just before he boarded his plane to the US. The conservative factions in Israel, especially the religious conservatives, believe Barak was willing to give too much away to achieve a false peace. Also on July 25, Israel's Chief Rabbi Meir Lau waded into a theological debate with Pope John Paul II, telling him that Jews have a historic and religious right to rule Jerusalem.

    On Tuesday, August 1 Barak again narrowly escaped a no confidence vote in the Knesset. Although Barak survived, opposition party Likud MK Moshe Katsav was elected the country's eighth president by the Knesset, defeating Minister of Regional Cooperation Shimon Peres by a vote of 63 to 57.  

    A last ditch effort to save his position failed when Barak consulted with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak Thursday, August 4 to attempt to convince Mubarak to intervene with a middle ground position regarding Jerusalem. Mubarak said he squarely backs Arafat's position on Jerusalem and is ready to recognize a Palestinian state should Arafat declare statehood on Sept. 13. By Monday, August 7, a poll reported that 56 percent of the Israeli public believed Barak was not credible, against 42 percent who still had faith in him. The Likud party is making "immense efforts" to topple the Barak government. Although the Knesset does not officially meet again until late October, every effort is being made to hold a special meeting to call for an election.

    Arafat fighting for His Life

    Barak is not the only leader in trouble. On Wednesday, August 9, Stratfor Intelligence noted "Arafat’s claim to leadership is tied to the peace process and depends upon securing a final deal." Arafat has reportedly been told he would be assinated if you agreed to anything less than full Arab control over East Jerusalem. Israel will not permit this. "Hard-line Palestinians will now mount a serious challenge to the longtime Palestinian leader’s power," claims Stratfor. "Arafat must get some major concessions and find peace or he loses his justification for leadership. Hamas, a radical militant faction comes out the winner if Arafat cannot secure peace. And peace now seems a distant hope," says Stratfor. Over two-thirds of all Palestinians now believe that violence is the only way they will gain sovereignty and statehood. 

    Arafat proposal of a unilateral declaration of statehood, was turned down cold when he visited several European nations following the collapse of the peace talks at Camp David. Worse, he received mixed messages when he visited Arab nations. Only Saudi Arabia and Egypt seemed willing to support Arafat in a September 13 declaration of statehood.

    Arafat’s trouble was made obvious on Tuesday, August 9, when Arafat insisted another summit could take place within 10 days. Both Barak and the United States insist that no summit had been planned. By Friday, August 11, it became obvious to even Arafat that another summit was not possible in the time-frame he needs to save himself.

    When he was in Iran, Arafat declared that "We are victims of aggression by the Zionists and their oppressive actions against holy Jerusalem," and declared the peace talks "dead." Arafat had not been in Iran for 20 years because Iran had boycotted him. But, he went because he wants Iran to convene the Organization of the Islamic Conference to define the future of the emerging Palestinian state and its capital in east Jerusalem. Arafat was hoping Iran's supposedly moderate President Mohammed Khatami would support him since Iran had launched an initiative for a solid Islamic bloc against Israel's demands for recognition of its control of Jerusalem. 

    At this point Arafat may not even have the power to decide whether to declare statehood on September 13. Salim Zanoun, chairman of the PLO's Central Council, announced on Thursday, August 10, that the 129-member Central Council would convene in the first week of September to make the decision. It would not be Arafat's to make. 

    The smoldering cauldron of Israel is reaching critical mass. The chance that Arafat would be able to get any concessions from Barak now in another peace summit is slim to none. "The only way for Arafat to secure a peace deal would be to make heavy concessions, which in turn would jeopardize his position as Palestinian leader," claimed Stratfor Intelligence on Wednesday, August 9. Whenever the deadline for statehood is established, September 13 or later, Arafat and the Central Council will have painted themselves into a corner. Israel must respond and violence will likely erupt. And, as Stratfor states, "If violence erupts, Arafat will have effectively handed over the reins of power to Hamas to proceed with holy war." 

    Clinton forcing a Holy war?

    In the meantime, some Palestinians are already calling for a "holy war" in the wake of the summit collapse. Both sides are beginning to prepare for war. On Monday, July 31 the London Telegraph reported "Jewish settlers and Palestinian extremists were stepping up preparations for war on the West Bank." Both sides were positioning weapons and preparing their people for skirmishes or war. DTT has long predicted this was the likely result of the ill-fated Clinton sponsored Camp David peace meetings.

    It is almost as if President Clinton is now deliberately throwing gasoline on the fire. Supposedly playing the role of the neutral party, he first accused Arafat of being inflexible during the negotiations. Then Clinton weighed into the crisis when he told Mr Arafat that a unilateral declaration of statehood on September 13 would constitute "a big mistake", and emphasized that the Palestinian leader could not expect "to walk away from the consequences" if he went ahead. Clinton even suspended the ongoing $100 million aid package to the Palestinians. Finally, he threw the match on the gasoline soaked tinderbox by threatening to move the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. 

    The Palestinians and Arabs were predictably outraged. ''We regret this flagrant American bias toward Israel,'' said Jordan's second largest newspaper on Monday, August 1. Ad-Dustour, in an editorial entitled: ''The dishonest referee unveils his bias.'' Clinton has deliberately blown his advantage of being the "neutral" arbitrator. Although the week before Arafat seemed to be softening on the September 13 deadline, after Clinton made his threat Arafat's position hardened and he announced on Tuesday, August 2 that ''Never, never. There is no retreat on the fixed timetable of the declaration of the state. It will be declared on the fixed time, which is September 13, God willing, regardless of those who agree or disagree." Israel, of course cannot permit this and will take military measures to prevent it.

    The Temple Mount Becomes Flash Point

    The Chief Rabbinical Council nearly precipitated a crisis on Tuesday, August 8 when it announced that it was setting up a committee to "realise our rights and sovereignty on the Temple Mount". Shaar-Yeshuv Hacohen, the Chief Rabbi of Haifa "rejected suggestions that the issue should be debated only after a peace accord has been reached with the Palestinians. 'I think that it should be negotiated before an agreement is reached,' he said. 'To the Jewish faith, the Temple Mount is the holiest place and we all pray towards that place and we should not give it away to any other people and any other religion.' 

    Not surprisingly, Ikrema Sabri, the Mufti of Jerusalem, fired back that building a synagogue on the hill would start a holy war that "only God knows where it would lead". To Muslims the Temple Mount is known as al-Haram al-Sharif, the "Noble Sanctuary", housing the Dome of the Rock and the al-Aqsa mosques. It is the third most holy place in Islam. Sheikh Muhammad Hussein, the most senior Islamic administrator at al-Haram al-Sharif, appealed to Israel: "Don't play with fire, this is not politics, this is religion, and if something happened, God forbid, you will find millions of Muslims willing to sacrifice their souls for our holy places." 

    The Temple Mount is not only sacred to Muslims and Jews, but is holy also to Christians. Pope John II renewed his appeal on Sunday July 30, as the summit entered its final phase, for an "internationally guaranteed special statute," an "international city," for Jerusalem to safeguard the city's sacred character.

    The Pope's call was once again rejected by both Israeli and Palestinian authorities. But on Thursday, August 17 the BBC reported that when Arafat met with Indonesian Muslim leader Abdurrahman Wahid, Wahid said that while Israel should have administrative control of Jerusalem, he also added that political sovereignty of the holy city should fall under an international body of six neighboring countries and the United Nations. Wahid may have revived the Pope Paul's drive to declare Jerusalem an "international city." 

    If such a deal were worked out, it would mean that Jerusalem would no longer be under the direct sovereignty of Israel, as it has since it took control during the June 1967 war. There is disagreement among Bible scholars whether Jerusalem will ever leave the sovereign control of Israel, now that Luke 21:24 has seemingly been fulfilled. On the other hand, such a move would be a giant step towards the fulfillment of Daniel 9:27.

    A New Role for Egypt

    The Palestinians continue their panic efforts to get back to the negotiating table at Camp David. Arafat got nowhere with Iran, so he went to Egypt. While supporting the need for Palestinian control over Jerusalem, Egyptian president Murbarak told the Jerusalem Post on Monday, August 14 that the September 13 deadline for declaring statehood may be delayed. "I think it [the September 13 deadline] may be postponed. We don't like any clash between the two parties. We would like to find a solution." Mubarak's statement came after Arafat received a decidedly chilly reception in various European capitals to his intention to unilaterally declare a state.

    Palestinian authorities grabbed onto Mubarak's shirttail by calling on the US to coordinate its peacekeeping efforts with Egypt. "The Palestinians need the backing of Egypt to reach an agreement on Jerusalem and other issues," one Palestinian Authority minister said in a report by the Jerusalem Post on Friday, August 18. By allowing Egypt to take the lead on statehood, Arafat and the Palestinians have brilliantly shifted responsibility for making this explosive decision to Egypt. Egypt seemed "warm to the idea," said the Jerusalem Post.

    Where to now?

    There will likely be another peace summit after the UN Millennium Summit, September 6-8. Either it too will fail, or the concessions that lead to an agreement will be too much for the people on either side to accept. Either way, war is almost inevitable in Israel. Worse, president Clinton seems to be doing all he can to precipitate such a war. In any event, the international community must respond to this threat to international peace and will almost certainly enter the fray to find a peace settlement by guaranteeing Israel's security in exchange for territory to be given to the Palestinians. For the first time in history we will be seeing evidence of the covenant to be signed by the Prince and his people as prophesied by Daniel 9:27.V