MEMBER'S HOME

DTT HOME

How to Use the Members Only Section

DTT Analyses

Prophecy Lessons

Jiang-Yeltsin Joint Statement 

Jiang-Putin Beijing Declaration

DTT INFORMATION

Discerning the Times  

 

6 Heather Road

Bangor, ME 04401

 

Phone

(207) 945-9878

email

DTT@discerningtoday.org

Since the first of the the year both Russia and China have been threatening military action against what they see as interference in their internal affairs by the West, particularly the U.S. and NATO. The hostilities have been obvious with China, but the press has carried very little of what has happened with Russia.

On Wednesday, August 16, WorldNetDaily (WND) reported on the largest military war games ever held by Russian and Belarus troops. Called Combat Unity 2000, the recent war games were meant, according to Russian spokesmen to, "make NATO strategists think twice about the dangerous consequences" of moving eastward and trying to take over key republics of the former Soviet Union.

For the past several years NATO and the U.S. have been in Russia's back yard making what can only be described as all-out efforts to secure economic (mostly oil) and security agreements with the Central Asian countries (Kyrgyzstan, Kazakstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan), the Southern Caucasaus republics of Azerbaijan and Georgia, and Ukraine, between the Black Sea and Moscow. On May 1 and May 5 Russian president Putin has brilliantly pulled these "wayward" republics back into the Russian sphere of influence, except for Azerbaijan and Georgia. Nonetheless, in July, NATO Secretary General Lord George Robertson visited the newly independent Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kirgizia and Uzbekistan. 

Georgia has been courting NATO most of the year, hoping to receive major Western capital and NATO military security from Russia. On April 17, Georgia threatened to cut its military for financial reasons expecting to force NATO to extend membership to it. NATO didn't take long to respond. On April 27, NATO announced it would extend membership to Georgia. The final insult to Russia came within days of the first phase of a Russian pullout on August 7. According to WND, "a NATO delegation toured an air base for possible use by the Western alliance following the withdrawal of Russian troops, which occurred only days before."

Does this mean military action? DTT has long held that Russia simply cannot permit Georgia and Azerbaijan to side with the west. It would simply deny them of a major chunk of their economic future. They must control not only the oil rich Caspian Sea republics, but also Georgia as the primary nation through which South Caucasus oil pipelines will flow. It now appears that the U.S. and NATO are keeping up the pressure to take Georgia and Azerbaijan away from Russia and to influence the Central Asian Republics. Russia has used the Chechen war to mobilize over 300,000 troops just north of Azerbaijan. To our knowledge, these troops have never been demobilized. We may soon find out if Russia intends to use them.

After a year of ever escalating threats of war against Taiwan, on August 23 Stratfor Intelligence reported that Chinese leadership has decided to not attack Taiwan for as long as five years. This decision was reportedly made in early August. This sudden reversal was supposed to allow China to focus on improving its economy. But other reports suggest otherwise.

On August 15, NewsMax reported that there are clear signs that China’s armed forces are preparing for war with Taiwan. China was strengthening their installations in the disputed Spratley Islands in the strategic South China Sea and beefing up their naval arm with makeshift troop transports, according to reports by the authoritative American Foreign Policy Council. The navy is upgrading its so-called "fortress buildings of the sea with combat readiness capability" on atolls in the Spratley Islands, Beijing’s newspaper Jiefangjun Bao reported.

Hong Kong’s Ta Kung Pao newspaper, Fang Zuqi, reported that the political commissar for the Nanjing Military Region told a forum of Communist Party committee secretaries that for the People's Liberation Army (PLA), "the most realistic and most urgent task is to step up efforts to get well prepared for military struggle." According to PLA tradition, such discussions often precede military action.

The PLA has also beefed up its naval installations along the the Taiwan Strait, built hundreds of new missile launch pads, and used over 1,000 civilian vessels in mock trials to transport tens of thousands of PLA troops. Like Russia, the PLA has recently conducted war games using 110,000 troops along the Taiwan Strait and is planning to conduct its first air raid drill for Shanghai in 50 years, according to the Shanghai Daily. This activity seems to be a fulfillment of the May 26 demand by China's Generals to be permitted to attack Taiwan. Early summer reports from the CIA say that China will start the war by blockading several key Taiwanese ports. This would be considered an act of war and will quickly escalate into a military confrontation. 

DTT, however, doubts China will give any warning and will move quickly to destroy most of Taiwan's airforce, army installations and navy using the 400 missiles it has positioned along the Taiwan Strait. If China does attack within the next couple of months, the decision revealed by WorldNetDaily on Friday, August 18 that the Pentagon appears ready to send the Pave Paws early warning radar to Taiwan would be a mute issue since it would be many months before Taiwan received the first radar unit. The Clinton administration has persistently and deliberately refused to provide this radar and the Aegis destroyers that it needs to give itself a fighting chance against an attack by China.