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- Global Leaders Fundamentally Shift Position
on Global Warming
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- In the weeks leading up to the
early July G-8 2005 meeting in Scotland environmental activists and
analysts predicted the heat would be turned up on George Bush in the
meeting to sign the Kyoto Protocol on climate change. To the contrary, the
G-8 meeting and other new initiatives such as the Methane to Markets (M2M)
and the Asia-Pacific
Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, strongly suggest world
leaders appear to be moving away from Kyoto and towards Bush’s climate
change position.
- Long before the Kyoto Protocol
came into force in February 2005 the M2M agreement was signed by the
United States, United
Kingdom, India, Ukraine, Mexico, and Italy in July 2004. The agreement
between these six nations alone would reduce the total global greenhouse
gas emissions by a surprising 1 percent. The initiative will remove 50
million metric tons by 2015. Kyoto will not to remove any methane from the
atmosphere. Kyoto, by the United Nations own admission would reduce global
warming by less than 0.015oC by the 22nd century at
a cost of hundreds of billions of dollars annually.
- M2M would be the
equivalent of taking 33 million cars off the road annually, eliminating 50
coal-fired electric plants or forgoing the energy use of 7.2 million homes
a year. All this comes at a cost of a measly $53 million over five years
in the United States. Reducing methane emissions is far more effective
than carbon dioxide (CO2) because it is 20 to 30 times more
potent a greenhouse gas than CO2. It is relatively easy to
control and offers financial paybacks to factories by eliminating lost
product.
- The geopolitical significance of
the radical departure of M2M from Kyoto wasn’t apparent until the G-8
meeting that was held during the first week of July, 2005. The joint
statement issued at the conclusion of the G-8 meeting stated,
"uncertainties remain in our
understanding of climate change." Although the statement diplomatically
reaffirmed the goals of the UNFCCC and the work of the United Nations
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, it did so with restrained
moderation.
- The G-8 leaders
pledged "to put ourselves on a path to slow and...stop and then reverse
the growth of greenhouse gases," but only "as the science justifies." This
is in sharp contrast to the heretofore proclamations of the immediate need
to implement the Kyoto Protocol regardless of cost.
- Even more striking
is the failure of the G-8 joint statement to even mention any of the
scientifically weak predictions of drought, storm frequency, famine, and
other "catastrophes" consistently predicted by global warming alarmists.
Instead, the statement emphasized the promotion of “innovation, energy
efficiency, conservation; improve policy, regulatory and financing
frameworks; and accelerate deployment of cleaner technologies,
particularly lower-emitting technologies.”
- This is what
president Bush has emphasized since he removed the United States from the
Kyoto Protocol in 2001 and focused instead on other approaches like the
M2M initiative. It is not surprising that M2M fits perfectly within the
G-8 Action Plan.
- Another shift from
the Kyoto Protocol by the G-8 is the need to stress adaptation technology.
"Adaptation to the effects of climate change due to both natural and human
factors is a high priority for all nations," the statement read.
- Finally, the G-8
acknowledged that no climate policy would be successful if it does not
include the rapidly growing nations of China and India. These nations are
second and third in the world in terms of greenhouse gas emissions today
and will soon take over as the number one emitters of greenhouse gases.
- Efforts are already
underway to include China, India and other nations in a more coherent
climate change effort. M2M already includes India and more nations will
likely join the agreement.
- The magnitude of the
geopolitical shift away from Kyoto did not come, however, until July 26th
when the United States was leading a six nation partnership of Pacific
states in a new agreement on global warming. The United States, Australia,
China, India, South Korea and Japan comprise the group. Called the
Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, the six-nation
plan emphasizes the need for increased access to affordable and reliable
energy in the developing world, and flexibility in reaching the group’s
environmental goals. The “vision statement” for the new initiative could
be taken from the G-8 Action Plan.
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The Partnership’s vision
is to
cooperate and share “existing and emerging cost-effective, cleaner
technologies and practices.” These technologies include, but not limited
to: “energy efficiency, clean coal, integrated gasification combined
cycle, liquefied natural gas, carbon capture and storage, combined heat
and power, methane capture and use, civilian nuclear power, geothermal,
rural/village energy systems, advanced transportation, building and home
construction and operation, bioenergy, agriculture and forestry,
hydropower, wind power, solar power, and other renewables.”
- The
emphasis appears to be on “cost-effective” solutions. M2M, of course, fits
perfectly within this vision. Although the statement diplomatically states
that the Partnership efforts runs in “parallel” with Kyoto, in fact it is
a radical departure from Kyoto.
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Many thought the Kyoto
Protocol was dead several times in the past, only to have it resurrect
itself like the fabled Phoenix. Although Kyoto is diplomatically included
in the language of the G-8 Plan of Action and the Asia-Pacific
Partnership, the approach differs radically, suggesting that Kyoto may
finally wither on the vine.
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